WALSH PURE SPREADER -Pure Hedge Division -
WALSH PURE SPREADER
-Pure Hedge Division -
Rich Moran 7/30/2025
DEC’25 WHEAT-DEC’25 CORN SPREAD (ZWZ25-ZCZ25)
The Dec Wheat - Dec Corn Spread (ZWZ25-ZCZ25) settled today at 132 ($1.32), matching its 14-day low from July 18th. This is below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. As long as we can stay below these moving averages, I like being short this spread. The parabolics have also been bearish since the middle of July.
I have been looking for a way to include some corn longs in a spread position in case there is a correction in the corn market. The general direction of the ZWZ25-ZCZ25 spread has been downward sloping since making its 52-week high of 219 on 10/3/24. It settled 211 that day. As both wheat and corn were trending higher at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025, the spread was trending lower. Since then, both commodities have reversed to downward trends and the spread has continued to trend lower.
As of Friday’s Commitments of Traders Summary, managed money is still short 177,365 corn futures and 52,041 wheat futures. When considering/comparing open interest levels and volume levels of corn and wheat, the managed money shorts are relatively similar.
Another thing to consider is if we continue with more trade deals, both wheat and corn may go higher. If this happens, I think corn could win the race up versus wheat, resulting in more downward pressure on this wheat-corn spread. “The trend is your friend …. until the end.” I feel we may some time before this trend is over.
I suggest getting short tomorrow on the opening at today’s settlement (132) or higher.
Risk 20 cents or $1,000 to make 50 cents or $2,500.
Following up on past trade ideas:
7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26(DEC’25-MAR’26 WHEAT SPREAD)
Today’s Settlement: -17¾, Long at -18½
Risk 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.
- 7/18/25: ZLZ25-ZLH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread)
Today’s settlement: +0.18, Long at +0.15
Risk 0.30 cents (0.15) or $180 to make 0.90 cents (+1.05) or $540
- 7/16/25 (6/20/2025): ZCU25-ZCZ25 (SEP-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -20½, Short at -17½
Risk 3½ cents (-14) or $175 to make 8.5 cents(-26) or $425
- 7/9/2025: (LEG26x2)-GFQ25-ZCU25:
(FEB’26 Live Cattle x 2, AUG ’25 Feeder Cattle, SEP ’25 Corn – Cattle Crush Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -271.60, Still looking to get short and waiting to settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.
- 7/2/25: 7/2/2025: ZMQ25-ZMZ25 (AUG-DEC’25 Soybean Meal Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -13.8, Still looking to buy this spread if it settles above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. It did settle above the 14-day moving average, but it still settled below the 21-day moving average today.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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